More “third party” sanctions threats and steps to avoid and exploit them as the Ukraine conflict continues to dominate global uncertainty and shift supply chains.
A proposed “CURB CIPS Act of 2022” would have serious global implications and result in a loss of economic sovereignty for China. Essentially, the bill would also place all Chinese global financial transactions under US veto power, and could later be expanded to include other countries that also trade with Russia. This could be construed as an act of war and could also hasten China’s entry into Taiwan before any bills are passed. If implemented, it would also cause serious additional damage to already strained global supply chains. Russia is a major exporter of energy and goods with massive export markets.
Iranian imports from the four Caspian littoral states (Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan) increased by 53% in value and 19% in volume during the first 11 months of the current Iranian fiscal year (from 21 March 2021 to February 19, 2022), compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the Iranian Customs Administration (IRICA). These are significant business trends showing the INSTC connecting Europe and Asia while avoiding Russia is coming online.
Another sign of the development of trade corridors between Central Asia and South-East Asia has materialized with the signing by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan of a memorandum of understanding with the Council trade from Thailand.
Privatization of Uzbek state enterprises, foreign investment and other reforms are all planned.
India is buying Russian crude oil at very favorable prices, which are not subject to sanctions, and is considering other payment channels for its bilateral trade payments. New Delhi appears to be seeking a balance in its engagement with allies on all sides of the war in Ukraine due to inevitable geographic, economic and geopolitical considerations.
When full trading begins, stocks will tumble, meaning some serious foreign blood on the floor while simultaneously creating bargain opportunities.
US analysts should have been right in chasing Moscow over Russia’s global dominance in precious metals, diamonds and rare earths, while the US dollar continues to slide against global gold reserves. Russia will be only too happy to see US reserves being spent to support the dollar as it continues to meet global demand for gold. It might be quite a global battle.
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